Economists from some of America’s biggest banks predict the U.S. economy will grow, add jobs, and support wage gains in 2020, according to a forecast of the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee.
The committee’s forecast reflects a balance of risks between the consumer and business side. Sustained job gains, low unemployment and strong wage growth will enable consumers to continue supporting the economy. Business investment is expected to increase as firms look to technology to improve efficiencies and enhance productivity amid tight labor markets.
The Committee expects the national unemployment rate to remain close to the current 3.5 percent level, wages will rise about 3.3% annually through 2021 and the probability of a recession over the next 12 months dropping to 25%. The 15 chief economists said they expect continued availability of credit with growth rates in 2020 of 4.1% for consumer credit and 3.4% for business credit and indicate that the banking industry remains well positioned to continue making the loans that help drive the economy forward. View detailed forecast numbers.